The challenge 

The Client is a privately owned generator and retailer operating across the NEM and WA. The Client also operates distribution infrastructure, supplying power to homes and businesses 

The Client sought to identify emerging opportunities in Australia’s energy retail market to support its five-year plan and achieve customer and EBIT growth targets. The objective was to understand near- and medium-term opportunities, adjacent markets, and the likely impact of new entrants on the evolving energy landscape. 

Our solution 

Rennie delivered a comprehensive market assessment, combining scenario analysis, market insights, and confidential stakeholder discussions. Using AEMO’s Draft ISP Step Change scenario (2021), we evaluated the pace and scale of change in retail energy markets over the next 2-5 years.  

The analysis focused on three areas: emerging consumer energy needs, close adjacent markets for energy bundling, and the influence of new entrants. We also examined long-term value pools, particularly opportunities to gain visibility and control of behind-the-meter (BTM) generation and load through home energy management systems (HEMS).  

Rennie engaged with investment banking, energy retail, and government contacts to validate assumptions and identify practical pathways for the Client to pursue near-term opportunities, including embedded networks, while positioning strategically for longer-term growth.  

Our impact 

The assessment provided the Client with a clear understanding of the rapidly evolving energy retail environment and the strategic imperatives required to remain competitive. Rennie’s work highlighted emerging value pools and quantified the potential for growth from BTM solutions, enabling the Client to prioritise investments in home energy management systems and wave 2 DER products.  

The analysis of adjacent markets and new entrant activity offered insight into potential competitive pressures and opportunities for energy bundling. By identifying near-term targets such as embedded networks, Rennie equipped the Client with actionable options aligned to its risk appetite.  

Overall, the project gave the Client the confidence to evolve its growth strategy in line with market shifts, ensuring readiness to capture both immediate and longer-term opportunities while mitigating strategic risks associated with an accelerated transition in the retail energy sector.  

Key insights 

• Energy retail growth will depend on proactive engagement with behind-the-meter solutions, enabling control of load and generation via HEMS 

• Adjacent markets and energy bundling provide pathways for incremental growth, particularly for retailers willing to explore near-term embedded networks 

• Early action in response to regulatory, technological, and competitive shifts is critical to avoid strategic disadvantage in a rapidly evolving retail landscape.