The challenge 

Our client was a state based automobile member organisation that was exploring options to offer energy related services to its customers.

Our team was engaged to provide independent market sizing analysis to support a discussion on adjacent market opportunities with the client’s executive leadership team and board.

Our solution 

Independent market sizing methodology

Our team developed comprehensive market sizing and growth forecasts for behind-the-meter solar and battery systems as well as the uptake of electric vehicle charging infrastructure. Drawing upon a range of publicly available energy transition reports, industry forecasts, and regulatory guidance, we generated both low and high case estimates to capture market uncertainty and growth potential. This approach included:

• Analysing state-level renewable energy penetration and consumer adoption trends.
• Leveraging integrated system planning data for grid-connected and off-grid energy solutions.
• Modelling consumer and fleet electric vehicle adoption and the cascading impacts on energy usage patterns.

Our impact 

Our insights provided the client with the confidence to have robust, data-driven strategic discussions with executives and the board. By quantifying the potential addressable market and growth outlook for energy-related services, we empowered the client to:

• Prioritise adjacent market opportunities with clear sizing and risk profiles.
• Frame decision criteria for board-level investment in new energy offerings, such as residential battery programs or member EV charger co-investment schemes.
• Align regulatory advocacy and member engagement with emerging energy transition trends.

Key insights 

• Strong market growth: Behind-the-meter solar and home battery installations are expected to maintain strong growth, with particularly high adoption in state regions with active incentives 
• EV charging opportunity: Rapid expansion in EV ownership will drive substantial demand for residential and workplace charging solutions, creating new partnership and subscription service models for member organisations.
• Risk factor: Investment decisions should consider evolving grid regulatory frameworks, technology costs, and consumer adoption hesitancy, ensuring flexibility in implementation over time.